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“If this steepening in the yield curve is mostly technically driven, it should stall here.
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“Looking at the yield curve, the 10s-2s spread continued to widen out and is now smack in the middle of the 30-40 basis point resistance range, and we think that’s a critical resistance level,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note. The index remains at the lowest level since September. The National Association of Home Builders’ monthly confidence index once again fell two points from the previous month to a reading of 77 in April, the trade group said Monday. See: Recession fears and the stock market - Is it too late to play defense?Ĭhina’s economy expanded 4.8% annually in the first quarter, which beat expectations. A persistent inversion of that part of the curve is seen as a reliable recession warning signal. That’s when the yield on the 2-year Treasury note moved above the 10-year rate, temporarily inverting the yield curve. The spread between 2- and 10-year yields narrowed somewhat early Monday, though it’s resteepened from where it was from late March to early this month.
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The Fed is seen pressing ahead with an aggressive tightening of monetary policy, including a likely half-point increase in the fed funds rate target, rather than the usual quarter-point increment, at its policy meeting next month and has outlined a tentative plan for a fast-paced reduction of its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. consumer inflation at 8.5%, its hottest since 1981, though a slower rise in the monthly core inflation reading, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, fueled a debate over whether inflation may be peaking. Last week, data showed the year-over-year pace of U.S. Treasury yields have marched higher in 2022 as investors wrestle with inflation running at its hottest in four decades. level was the highest since April 29, 2019. Was 2.951%, compared with 2.917% late Thursday. Was 2.458%, compared with 2.442% Thursday afternoon. 14, 2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Monday’s level marked the highest close, based on 3 p.m. Eastern, compared with 2.808% Thursday afternoon.